Four provinces have published a 2027 rent increase number, and they did not move together. Ontario and British Columbia came down. Manitoba went up, and changed which units the guideline covers at the same time.
The 2027 numbers
These are the figures on the government pages as of early September 2026.
- Ontario: 1.9 per cent, down from 2.1 per cent in 2026, for increases taking effect on or after January 1, 2027. Ontario's guideline page has the figure.
- British Columbia: 2.2 per cent, down from 2.3 per cent, effective January 1, 2027, per the Residential Tenancy Branch.
- Manitoba: 3.0 per cent, up from 1.8 per cent, effective January 1, 2027.
- Nova Scotia: 5 per cent. This is a temporary cap rather than an annual guideline, and it runs to December 31, 2027.
- Alberta: no limit on the amount of an increase.
- Prince Edward Island: 2026 was set at 2 per cent on all rental units. The 2027 figure has not been published yet.
Ontario's guideline is calculated from the provincial Consumer Price Index over a June to May window, and it is capped by statute at 2.5 per cent. That ceiling on the ceiling matters more than the annual number does: whatever inflation does, the Ontario guideline cannot go above 2.5.
Manitoba changed the rule, not only the number
Manitoba's guideline has never applied to every unit. Units renting at or above a monthly threshold sit outside it, and the landlord sets the increase. Today that threshold is $1,670. On January 1, 2027 it moves to $2,000.
Read that as a list of units rather than as policy. A unit renting at $1,800 today is outside the guideline. On January 1 the same unit is inside it, and 3 per cent becomes the ceiling. Nothing about the unit changed, and nobody sends you a notice about it.
The other exemptions survive. Per the province's announcement, buildings first occupied after March 2005 stay exempt from the guideline for 20 years. Social housing, units owned by a level of government, not-for-profit life lease units, co-operative units and approved rehabilitated units also stay outside it.
The percentage is the easy half
The number tells you the ceiling. The exemption rules tell you whether there is a ceiling at all, and those vary far more between provinces than the percentages do.
In Ontario the guideline does not apply to new buildings, additions, and most new basement apartments first occupied for residential purposes after November 15, 2018. It also never applies on turnover, where the rent for an incoming tenant is negotiated. In Manitoba the test is the rent threshold plus the 2005 building date. In Nova Scotia the cap binds increases for sitting tenants, and fixed terms that end and restart with a new tenant have been the standing criticism of it.
Run the exemption test per unit, not per portfolio. Two Ontario buildings, one first occupied in 2017 and one in 2019, give different answers, and a portfolio-wide rule will get one of them wrong.
The cap year is a calendar year. Your increase is not.
Each of these numbers attaches to the date the increase takes effect, not to when you serve notice and not to your fiscal year. A unit whose last increase landed on June 1 takes the 2027 figure on June 1, 2027, and the 2026 figure before that.
Notice and frequency, by province:
- Ontario: at least 90 days written notice on the Landlord and Tenant Board form, and 12 months since the last increase or the start of the tenancy.
- British Columbia: three full months notice, and rent can be increased once every 12 months.
- Manitoba: three months written notice. The province's own worked example: to increase on January 1, notice has to be given by September 30.
- Alberta: three full tenancy months for month to month, 12 tenancy weeks for week to week, 90 days for other periodic tenancies. At least 365 days since the last increase, and no increase during a fixed term.
- Prince Edward Island: three months written notice for the annual allowable increase.
What to do in the next three weeks
If you hold units in Manitoba, this is the live one, because September 30 is the last day to serve for a January 1, 2027 increase.
- Pull every Manitoba unit renting at least $1,670 and under $2,000 a month. That band is what moves inside the guideline on January 1.
- For each one, find the date of the last increase or the start of the tenancy. Anything less than 12 months back takes the unit out of this cycle whatever the threshold does.
- Decide the January 1 increases and serve written notice by September 30.
- Ask the Residential Tenancies Branch, in writing, how the new threshold treats a notice served before January 1 for an increase effective on or after it. The published guideline pages do not address the transition, and it is the difference between a valid notice and a void one. Keep the reply on file.
Outside Manitoba the work is duller and still worth doing now. Export the last-increase date for every unit, sort ascending, subtract the province's notice period, and your 2027 service calendar falls out of the spreadsheet. If Ontario is most of your portfolio, the serving mechanics are covered in more depth in our piece on the N1 and the 12-month clock.
What is still open
PEI has not published a 2027 number, so Island landlords are planning against 2 per cent until it lands. Nova Scotia's cap is legislated to end on December 31, 2027, which makes 2028 the year to watch there rather than 2027.
One last thing worth saying plainly: a guideline is a ceiling, not a target. In a soft submarket the lawful increase and the collectable increase are different numbers, and a renewal runs on the second one.